We're doomed, doomed I tell you!

We in the UK have a knack of talking ourselves into a negative position. At the moment we are determined to enter a recession by telling ourselves it is on the way. The same is true in the beer business. True, the general trend for beer consumption is down. But there is the flicker of a shift in drinking habits with consumers now seeking quality rather than quantity in beer and, for that matter, wine, spirits, food, holidays, etc. etc.

Anyway, here is the news: pub volume figures published by AC Nielsen show the beer market slumped by 6% in volume in November 2007 compared to the year before. The figures show premium ale down 8%, standard ale down 8%, standard lager down 5%, premium lager down 10%, stout down by 2% and cider up by 3%.

Looking forward AC Nielsen consultant Graham Page said: “I think January to March will be very poor, without any real respite until June/July, assuming we have half a summer.

“I think we may be seeing the Moving Annual Total (MAT) for beer by Easter being down7/8%, possibly worse and the current economic circumstances are simply not supportive of anything other than consumers and business battening down the hatches in the first half of 2008.”

Thanks Mr Page. I know we are not meant to shoot the messenger, but is there any positive news you can share?